Today, Irregular News debuts the American Terror Attack Risk Index – ATARI for short, no offense intended to the old video game maker.
ATARI is an attempt to quantify the risk that any individual American can reasonably judge to exist for personally coming under terrorist attack
The index is calculated by measuring the number of people killed in terrorist attacks in the United States per day, for the year so far. That number is then multiplied by the number of days left in the year, and added to the number of people in the United States already killed. The resulting number is a prediction, based upon the prevalence of terrorist attacks in America so far, of the total number of people in the United States that we can expect to die of terrorist attacks in 2017.
Today, the American Terror Attack Risk Index is zero. That is, because zero people have been killed this year by terrorist attacks in the United States, with an average of zero people per day killed, we can reasonably expect absolutely no one to be killed by a terrorist attack in the United States in 2017.
This statistical reality is in stark contrast to the dark warnings of President Donald Trump, who told Americans over the weekend that he, “Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!”
This statement directed as criticism against District Court Judge James L. Robert, who issued an order stopping Trump’s executive order banning all refugees and all visitors from 7 majority-Muslim countries. It is incumbent upon us to note that this statement contains one substantial misleading statement and one blatant lie.
The blatant lie is that people are pouring into the country across the nation’s borders. This is plainly not the case, as there is already substantial border security and a remarkable level of vetting of immigrants, refugees, and foreign visitors to the United States. There is a steady and controlled entry of foreigners into the United States.
The misleading statement is that the United States is “in such peril”. As the American Terrorist Attack Risk Index shows, the risk of anyone in the United States dying of a terrorist attack is very, very low – as low as any risk can be. It is statistically likely, at this point, with about a tenth of the year already gone, that nobody at all – or almost nobody at all – will die of a terrorist attack in the United States.
That’s not what peril looks like.